Thursday, August 29, 2013

08/29/13: Hoping to open low and then rally up to 1650s

Been awhile since I updated.
Currently markets trying to digest all the negativity in the news.  I like the volatility but I hope there is no war, and nothing comes out of all this.

SPX looks like it's setting up a expanding wedge.  According to Bulkowski, breakdowns occur 70+% of the time but first we need another hit of the upward sloping wedge.

If that's the case, then we should see somewhere in the 1650s and then a breakdown.  However, what if it's a partial decline?  In that case, we may see prices rally all the way up to 1680s.  Not out of the ordinary.  All it takes is someone to say "no strike."

So right now, thinking target first is 1650s but I want tomorrow to open slightly lower...better entry.

After 1650s, the odds are in favor of a trip south but maybe that's not the case this time.  Not that there is a new moon around 9/5 so maybe prices fly into 9/5.  Let's see.

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

08/13/13: Back on the bull train

Today's move down after the open took me a bit by surprise.  I thought perhaps the market was going to break neckline and make a wicked H&S.  Instead, I decided that there were some bullish divergences forming so I took a UPRO position.

Currently sitting with UPRO and holding into tomorrow.  The timing window is EOD 8/14.  The next one after that is EOD 8/16 or open on 8/19.

My gut instinct is telling me markets are making one final attempt at the high.  We still have this open gap at ~1705.  Hoping that gets filled.  That may be an ideal target for this last attempt up.

Friday, August 9, 2013

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

08/06/13: Still looking for a higher high

Markets were significantly oversold today on a relative basis.  What this means is if we do achieve a lower low, this will set up a significant positive divergence that could be the springboard to higher highs.

Secondly, today we have a "positive reversal."  The CCIs on all timeframes were significantly oversold relative to the most recent CCI low however price is making a higher low.  This means that the sell off was not strong enough to drive price lower, and bears did not get the job done.

This setup is very prone to a short squeeze.  It could be last leg of this particular wave.

Still holding UPRO but today really put a damper since I bought at the close yesterday and today we had a gap down and a drive lower.

Again, still looking for a higher high.