Thursday, June 27, 2013

06/27/13: Outlook incorrect, holding short however

Limited upside remaining however given how this rally has moved past my timing window, I have no choice but to concede that we would move a little bit higher giving me a bit more "pain" on the shorts and me admitting that the next few days outlook was incorrect

Based on the new information received after this morning's gap...we have several price targets for upside tomorrow:
1.   The 2nd gap at 1590 met its implict price objective: you take the 1560->1590 then double it gives you 1620.

2.   The latest 3rd gap takes this a step further.  This gap was 1605.  1560->1605 = 45 point move so 1605+45 = 1650 is a high upside target.  Realistically it appears that 1635 is achievable (equal length waves 1560->1590 then add 30 points to the 1605 gap = 1635).

3.  Gap is at 1625-1629.  Given the viciousness of the previous move, I am speculating that market participants would find that a prime opportunity to get out of longs.


-  Daily NYMO is hitting the upper BB and is also sporting a fat negative reversal (velocity of momentum oscillator much faster than price...can't continue forever).

-  Hourly OBV is showing we should be back at 1580 because we're back at the declining channel.  Note that I am not SUPER bearish but bearish currently given how at a very basic level, the major moving averages on the hourly and the daily are trending DOWN.  This tells me to take higher risk on the short side, less risk on the long side until the moving averages switch.

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