Saturday, October 5, 2013

10/5/13: Hedging longs, looking for ST pullback, then another rally

No resolution on the government shutdown yet so market is acting erratic.  However, as more time progresses, it would become more clear to market participants when a bill passed and we are back to normal again.

Judging by the way the markets are setting up, I think a resolution to this matter is likely this week.  Why I feel this way is because the ADX is almost crawling on the floor.  Periods of consolidation/confusion precede big rallies (in one direction or the other).

It seems that markets have priced in the worst of this shutdown already and frankly it hasn't been much of a factor.  If it was more pressing, we should be seeing a far larger correction, not this shallow sharp version.

Anyway, I hedged my longs towards the end of the day (marked in purple arrow for hedge).  I am looking for a pull back on Monday but likely not exceeding the low we witnessed earlier this week.  Afterwards, I plan on taking off the hedge and adding to longs.  My expectations remain a higher high > 1720s but not sure when exactly

I'm hedging rather than outright short because CCIs are displaying negative reversal potential (higher high on indicator but lower high on price).  Additionally, price action seems to be mapping out a rising wedge.  However, on the flipside, aroon oscillator has been progressing moving higher so it gives me a bit of caution moving into next week.

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