Wednesday, September 4, 2013

09/04/13: Shorting SPX, looking for lower low ~1600

We've had a roller coaster ride the past couple of days with serious swings on both sides.

To me, the market is probably completing a wave B of iv.  If that is the case, then we should be peaking soon and then another swift move lower (approximately 80 points if A=C) to take us to roughly 1580.  Whatever it is, it is likely below 1600.

I really don't think we are going to new highs yet.  The scenario I am going off of is we move down to 1580s late September which is right around where super-long term support is now (this is the meridian line dating back to the 1930s).  We crossed that resistance line before the Boston bombings and the bombings took us down to support level.  After the test, markets rallied huge and are now in this more expansive corrective pattern.

If 1580s holds, then we are likely heading > 1705, maybe to 1750.  That would be ideal in my opinion.  If we fail (really don't want to get into this whole Syrian mess), then we could be ushering in a brutal bear trend.

Anyway, I've marked in pink where possible grind higher could go.  OBV is showing a disconnect's made lower lows but price hasn't.  Usually OBV is a leading indicator and tells us we are heading lower.

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