Tuesday, September 10, 2013

09/10/13: Possible high tomorrow 10am EST

Markets popped at the open and never looked back.  Hourly OBV on the SPX broke its downtrend materially by the end of the day.  However, there is still a significant divergence between hourly OBV and where price is at.

SPX OBV is at a level below 1660.51 which was the high back on 8/26 pre-Kerry speech.  SPX needs to keep pushing forward for the next several days in order to wipe out this divergence, but this seems really unlikely.

Since OBV is showing negative divergence, I am waiting for a move down below 1660.51 at minimum.  Don't get me wrong, long term this market is UP.  My long term accounts are all in SPX but swing trade on the short term account.

These waves are the worst in my opinion because they are designed to second guess your thesis.  Such a strong, impulsive move makes you wonder if this is start of some wave 3 of 1, but it's so damn close to where you think resistance is and where this wave ought to stop.

Looking forward to tomorrow, timing window is at 10am EST.  Possible high?  If it's a high then I'm looking for a move down into 9/13 which is the next timing window.

The saving grace I have is the UPRO hourly OBV.  UPRO still hasn't broken its downtrend OBV.  I am not sure if leveraged ETFs hourly OBV is reliable but am taking a look here.

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