I thought we would likely end short of the new high since I currently have this rally as the "B" wave of wave 4 of higher degree, but now we have inched slightly higher. If we are currently still in wave 4 and this is the B wave, then we have ourselves an irregular B wave in an expanded flat structure.
It remains possible for this to be the irregular B wave. Wave 2 in my book was the correction after the November election. It was a simple zigzag pattern. If we apply alternation, then I would expect wave 4 to be a more complex structure. The expanded flat fits the bill.
Another reason why I am still convinced this is a B wave is the magnitude and speed of the rise. B waves tend to move swift and reach overbought (or oversold) in a hurry (i.e. this one 2 days). Time will ultimately tell but if this is an irregular B wave, then I am expecting the C wave to be fast and furious, down to 1480-1500 and exceed our A wave low of 1539.
One of my least favorite positions to take is a short-counter trend position. Today was no exception. It is always tough holding a short position through a fast B wave, but the payoff could be rewarding once the C wave is under way.
Even though I think we are looking at 1500 and lower, there is a web of support at 1555, so I will take it one step at a time.
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CCIs are getting overbought with the 8 and 13 showing negative divergence.
DI+ is at the top of its channel.
Today's final hour slam is a +1 for bears but it will need some more effort tomorrow.
OBV is sky high. I think the B wave has run out of juice so given how high OBV is, I am even more convinced that after this correction, we will see 1600+. That is possibly a May-June event.
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