Wednesday, April 17, 2013

04/17/13: Wave B retrace to 1568-1574 into Friday then down into 1480-1490?

It looks more clear now that we have 5 waves down from 1597 and it ended at 1543.  This is a -54 point drop.  If this is the case, then we either finished wave A of int. 4 of we just finished wave 1 of a bigger, and scarier correction.

Covered shorts, went long at 1546.

I still think we are in intermediate wave 4.  Wave A completed and wave B commenced at 1543 and is on its way to make at least 3 waves up.

Wave B retrace varies obviously but for now I think Friday is a likely change in trend date so there is not much time for this wave to get going.  If we had 5 waves down, then we likely have a 5-3-5 arrangement.  This means that I expect the wave B retrace to fall somewhere between 1568 and 1574.  It may go higher but 1575 is going to be a huge hurdle to surpass.

If we get a double top at 1575, then wave C down is at minimum 1575-54 = 1521.  If 1.618 of wave A then we have 1486.63 as a possible wave C down target.  I doubt we get to see a 2.618 wave C...since this would indicate a price target of 1432, which violates what I am thinking long term...that this is wave 4 and we still have a wave 5 up.

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