Thursday, May 2, 2013

5/2/13: Holding short, still think the major cycle is due

Add me to the list of additional top pickers.  However, the jury is still on whether or not this is a failed top call.

The highs since 4/11 are:
1.  1597.35: 4/11
2.  1592.64: 4/25
2.  1597.57:  4/30 (all time monthly close)
3.  1598.60: 5/2

At first glance, it looks like we are making "all-time" highs.  However we are still trading within < 5 points of each high.  Yes, the bulls are knocking on 1600's door but this is one hell of a hurdle to pass.  Not only do the bulls want a new all time high but also a new digit recorded.

There are too many divergences abounding.  ECB's rate cut today was expected and it only made 1 point new high.  Not enough honestly.

Futures vs. cash
1.  ES hit a high on 4/30.  Cash hit a high today 5/2.  Divergence between futures and cash forming

1.  OBV still below its highs.  It is now on a triple divergence
2.  CCIs tracing out negative divergences on various time horizons
3.  Declining volume
4.  Standard RSI divergence
5.  MACD divergence
6.  Backtest of broken wedge

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