Monday, November 11, 2013

11/11/13: Been awhile

Been awhile since I last updated.  Since then, just been busy though at the same time, kind of disappointed we're in this sideways meandering market.  Something's got to give...very soon.  Traders don't like low volatility.

So I'm still targeting somewhere in the vicinity of 1600.  Timing is off but ultimately the big picture is 1600.  I guess I'm quite early, but looking for weakness into end of year.  On the daily chart (not posted), it appears we're in this phase where the bulls feel like they can't lose and the bears are too afraid to short.  So market has been quite successful in moving bears to the sidelines (or converting bears to bulls) and getting people off the sidelines to buy the dips (every dip has been bought regardless of how small) but we haven't moved up much since 10/21 (maybe 1+%?)

Our first inkling of some sort of weakness is the lower low put forth on 11/7.  Bears viciously moved markets down to the lower band of kelt (using 3 standard deviations so in other words, the move was significant).  Bulls bounced back and ripped bears a new one again and now we're back to square one.

At end of day today, I shorted again.  My reasoning is our stop line (chandelier exit) has moved down and price has moved up.  I imagine those with automated triggers at chandelier exits may have been stopped out giving some opportunity for others to take a stab.  My stop is about 5% above my entry (so position size is small enough to not lose much on capital but at same time give some buffer and let this trade work).

My short term target is back down near the long stop (green line) achieving a lower low.  Again, still maintaining a bearish stance into end of year.

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