Tuesday, February 12, 2013
02/12/13 - SPX Hourly: 1520+ pop achieved, looking for start of reversal
Last SPX Cash close: 1519.43
Last UVXY (long volatility) close: 9.92
Current position: long 2 lots of long volatility (via UVXY). Avg px = $10.01. Stop = $8.95.
Closed positions: closed 1 lot of UPRO. Avg cost = $105.9 Avg Px = $106.19
Position: currently BEARISH
Current Plan: 1520+ was reached today. The high was 1522.29. I am looking for the start of a reversal.
Expected position adds: add 2 more lots of UVXY if we dip back to 9.7s. We are attempting to capitalize on an increase in volatility.
The following is a redacted version of my hourly chart.
Short term (next few days): SHIFT TO BEARISH
First, we need the correction to begin. Secondly, difficult to predict how far that correction will go. The important lines in the sand are 1510 and 1485. A close below 1485 is extremely bearish.
Intermediate term (1 month outlook): SHIFT TO BEARISH
The intermediate outlook is bearish. The target is in the range of 1400-1420 by early March however given how shallow these dips have been, it is likely 1460 is the max we can get.
Long term (> 3 months outlook): REMAIN BULLISH
The bigger picture is still bullish in my view. Current position is we will revisit all time highs in the summer.