Tuesday, February 12, 2013

02/12/13 - SPX Hourly: 1520+ pop achieved, looking for start of reversal

Last SPX Cash close: 1519.43
Last UVXY (long volatility) close: 9.92

Current position: long 2 lots of long volatility (via UVXY).  Avg px = $10.01.  Stop = $8.95.
Closed positions: closed 1 lot of UPRO.  Avg cost = $105.9  Avg Px = $106.19
Position: currently BEARISH

Current Plan: 1520+ was reached today.  The high was 1522.29.  I am looking for the start of a reversal.
Expected position adds: add 2 more lots of UVXY if we dip back to 9.7s.  We are attempting to capitalize on an increase in volatility.

The following is a redacted version of my hourly chart.

Short term (next few days): SHIFT TO BEARISH
First, we need the correction to begin.  Secondly, difficult to predict how far that correction will go.  The important lines in the sand are 1510 and 1485.  A close below 1485 is extremely bearish.

Intermediate term (1 month outlook): SHIFT TO BEARISH
The intermediate outlook is bearish.  The target is in the range of 1400-1420 by early March however given how shallow these dips have been, it is likely 1460 is the max we can get.

Long term (> 3 months outlook): REMAIN BULLISH
The bigger picture is still bullish in my view.  Current position is we will revisit all time highs in the summer.

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