We are getting close, really close to a temporary high and the start of a quick sell off to what I believe is wave 4 of the up swing since 1343.
I am currently in cash and observing at the moment after making some intraday trades on Friday. The setup was good for a short beginning in the hour leading up to the 1524 high. However I took profit pretty early at the 1519 level which in hindsight was certainly too early. I played the bounce at that level but SPX ended up getting dragged down below the 50 hourly MA to 1514 before rocketing back up to 1519+ narrowly avoiding a cross of the EMA 10 and 20.
I'm thinking Tuesday will pop up to retest the highs once again. Triple top? Why I think this is possible:
1. The CCIs on the smaller time frames are highly oversold and ripe to pop up.
2. The OBV still implies a high > 1524.69.
3. The A/D still making new highs
4. ADX DI- at top of channel and DI+ at bottom. Probability wise makes more sense for markets to bounce up rather than proceed down.
In other news, I also closed out a UVXY loser. While I thought there was the potential for some nice pops, it turned out to take a lot of my energy focusing on this. I decided the potential there wasn't worth the cost, so I closed this out at a loss. I wouldn't recommend this product to anyone.
Closed posns (2/15/13):
Buy 2 lots @30.52 -
Sell 1 lot @ 30.86
Sell 1 lot @ 30.83
Buy 1 lot @ 106.51
Buy 1 lot @ 106.13
Sell 2 lots @ 106.38
Sold 2 lots @ 9.60 for loss - never trading this again. Period.