Saturday, February 16, 2013

02/16/13 - looking for pop on Tuesday, closed UVXY, sitting in cash

We are getting close, really close to a temporary high and the start of a quick sell off to what I believe is wave 4 of the up swing since 1343.

I am currently in cash and observing at the moment after making some intraday trades on Friday.  The setup was good for a short beginning in the hour leading up to the 1524 high.  However I took profit pretty early at  the 1519 level which in hindsight was certainly too early.  I played the bounce at that level but SPX ended up getting dragged down below the 50 hourly MA to 1514 before rocketing back up to 1519+ narrowly avoiding a cross of the EMA 10 and 20.

I'm thinking Tuesday will pop up to retest the highs once again.  Triple top?  Why I think this is possible:
1.  The CCIs on the smaller time frames are highly oversold and ripe to pop up.
2.  The OBV still implies a high > 1524.69.
3.  The A/D still making new highs
4.  ADX DI- at top of channel and DI+ at bottom.  Probability wise makes more sense for markets to bounce up rather than proceed down.

In other news, I also closed out a UVXY loser.  While I thought there was the potential for some nice pops, it turned out to take a lot of my energy focusing on this.  I decided the potential there wasn't worth the cost, so I closed this out at a loss.  I wouldn't recommend this product to anyone.

Closed posns (2/15/13): 
Intraday trades
1.  SPXU 
Buy 2 lots @30.52 -
Sell 1 lot @ 30.86
Sell 1 lot @ 30.83

2.  UPRO 
Buy 1 lot @ 106.51
Buy 1 lot @ 106.13
Sell 2 lots @ 106.38

3.  UVXY
Sold 2 lots @ 9.60 for loss - never trading this again.  Period.

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