Thursday, February 21, 2013

02/21/13 - bought more SPX, medium long position, looking to close tomorrow

Market looked like it would rally based on futures but at the opening bell, decided to puke.

I bought some more longs to build a medium long SPX position.  If the recent wave down was an A wave, then we should be in the middle of a B wave.  If so, then the target for this B wave is 1510.

Should it reach that level, I will sell a significant portion of the longs and buy me some short SPX because there is one more wave down possibly to 1480.

Even though I thought it was not really possible a few days ago, it looks like that 1480 target by Friday was not too shabby.  I still expect markets to rally up to new YTD highs after this correction is over.

based on hourly, the reason why I think this B wave is evident Friday:
1.  severely oversold CCIs.  Smaller timeframes have broken their downtrend and are now a few hours way from spiking into 1510.
2.  OBV still showing some sort of positive divergence.
3.  Looking for a gap fill and test of the 20 hourly EMA.

On the daily chart, today saw a near vertical drop into sub -200 on the CCI 9.  This was the lowest reading in the past year.  On top of that NYMO closed below it's BB.  Good odds for a quick snap back.

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