Wednesday, February 20, 2013

02/20/13 - closed short, open long SPX short term trade

Wow, today's move finally woke some people up.  A more than 1% down move seems like an endangered species nowadays.

Closed the short SPX and am now small long at the close since I think the downdraft has moved a bit too quickly.  CCIs went from overbought to oversold in a day...and not just on the smaller CCI timeframes, but also on the medium ones (40).  DI- is also off the charts relatively speaking.

I am playing only what I believe is the B wave of this wave 4 correction.  I think the B wave will move up to kiss broken trendline support and the crossing of several EMAs (10, 20) with the SMA 50.  This is roughly 1520.

Afterwards, I am looking for a move down into the 1480-1500 range.  Not sure where exactly.  However, given I think markets always try to throw people off the most, I say we move slightly below 1500, run some stops, and then rally up.  There will no doubt be a lot of people waiting for the train to correct, but the train might leave the station prematurely.

Long term, I am still bullish.  I am still expecting a visit up to 1550 or beyond.

(all arrows dictate when I shorted or went long).

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