Monday, February 11, 2013
02/11/13 - SPX Hourly: Still Bearish but looking for a pop to 1520+
Last SPX Cash close: 1517.01
Last UVXY (long volatility) close: 10.12
Current position: long 1 lot of SPX (via UPRO). Avg px = $105.9. Stop = $102.7.
Closed positions: closed 1 lot of SPXU. Avg cost = $31.04 Avg Px = $31.106
Position: currently BEARISH
Current Plan: Although bearish, I am still expecting a pop into the 1520+ range and will offload longs when target is reached.
Expected position adds: add 2 lots short SPX (via SPXU) if ~1525. add 1-2 lots long volatility via UVXY.
Short term (next few days): SHIFT TO BEARISH
Still expecting a short lived pop up to 1520+.
Intermediate term (1 month outlook): SHIFT TO BEARISH
The intermediate outlook is bearish. The target is in the range of 1400-1420 by early March.
The overall thesis is the runup since December 31 of > 6% is coming to an end. The pattern formation is similar in form and structure to the May 2010 flash crash. Although I am not predicting something as extreme as the flash crash, I am still expecting a 5% correction.
Long term (> 3 months outlook): REMAIN BULLISH
The bigger picture is still bullish in my view. Current position is we will revisit all time highs in the summer.