Monday, February 11, 2013

02/11/13 - SPX Hourly: Still Bearish but looking for a pop to 1520+

Last SPX Cash close: 1517.01
Last UVXY (long volatility) close: 10.12

Current position: long 1 lot of SPX (via UPRO).  Avg px = $105.9.  Stop = $102.7.
Closed positions: closed 1 lot of SPXU.  Avg cost = $31.04  Avg Px = $31.106
Position: currently BEARISH

Current Plan: Although bearish, I am still expecting a pop into the 1520+ range and will offload longs when target is reached.
Expected position adds: add 2 lots short SPX (via SPXU) if ~1525.  add 1-2 lots long volatility via UVXY.

Short term (next few days): SHIFT TO BEARISH
Still expecting a short lived pop up to 1520+.

Intermediate term (1 month outlook): SHIFT TO BEARISH
The intermediate outlook is bearish.  The target is in the range of 1400-1420 by early March.

The overall thesis is the runup since December 31 of > 6% is coming to an end.  The pattern formation is similar in form and structure to the May 2010 flash crash.  Although I am not predicting something as extreme as the flash crash, I am still expecting a 5% correction.

Long term (> 3 months outlook): REMAIN BULLISH
The bigger picture is still bullish in my view.  Current position is we will revisit all time highs in the summer.

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